Possible scenario
Policy Cushion Arrives
20% Chance
Central banks and fiscal authorities respond to the downside risk before it becomes a deeper contraction. Lower yields, easier financial conditions, and targeted incentives for power grids and chip manufacturing limit the damage to global growth.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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