Possible scenario
Russian Escalation Continues
20% Chance
Moscow interprets Ukraine’s low interception rate as an opportunity and intensifies strikes against generation plants, gas storage, and substations. This is a more severe path that raises the risk of wider regional disruption, though still short of direct NATO-Russia conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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