Possible scenario
Grid Damage Deepens
38% Chance
Russia’s missile campaign continues to overwhelm Ukraine’s depleted air defenses, forcing Ukrenergo to ration power and prioritize critical infrastructure. The most likely path is a difficult winter energy defense effort rather than an immediate collapse of the national grid.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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