Possible scenario
Retaliation Escalates Conflict
20% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with airstrikes against Houthi launch sites and logistics nodes, potentially with U.S. intelligence or air-defense support. This raises the probability of further attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Red Sea shipping, or Gulf aviation corridors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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