Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi air defenses limit the damage from the barrage, with Riyadh airport and Aramco reporting only temporary operational interruptions. This is the most likely outcome because recent Houthi attacks have been frequent but have not yet produced a sustained halt to Saudi oil exports.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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