Possible scenario
Aramco Assets Damaged
25% Chance
One or more missiles penetrate defenses and cause confirmed damage to Aramco-linked facilities, although Saudi export terminals continue operating. The market reaction is larger because the attack targets both symbolic leadership infrastructure and oil-sector continuity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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