Possible scenario
Security Risk Returns
20% Chance
The return of Rosatom staff is interrupted by renewed Israeli or regional security warnings connected to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Bushehr itself may remain undamaged, but the presence of Russian personnel raises the stakes of any further military action near the site.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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