Possible scenario
Managed Tension Persists
25% Chance
The Rosatom return proves real but limited, with Moscow avoiding a full normalization signal while Israel and Iran remain in a tense deterrence cycle. Bushehr stays operational, but diplomats and inspectors keep warning about regional spillover risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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