Possible scenario
March Breaks Through
25% Chance
A larger-than-expected PTI mobilization bypasses parts of the container blockade and reaches Islamabad's outskirts or key entry roads. This would test the army-backed security plan and raise the risk of violence near the capital.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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