Possible scenario
Court-Mediated De-Escalation
18% Chance
Judges, provincial officials, or back-channel intermediaries push the government and PTI toward a limited protest arrangement. This scenario is plausible because Pakistan's courts often become the venue for managing high-stakes political confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.