Possible scenario
Blockade Contains March
45% Chance
The federal government and Punjab authorities keep using seized containers, troop deployments, and arrests to prevent PTI convoys from reaching central Islamabad. This is the most likely path because the state has already mobilized logistics and security resources before the Oct. 4 march.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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