Possible scenario
Le Pen Implements Cutoff
35% Chance
Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 presidential election and treats the Ukraine pledge as a core sovereignty issue. France stops new bilateral arms packages, reviews Rafale-related training commitments, and scales back missile-production cooperation announced under Emmanuel Macron.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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