Possible scenario
Institutions Constrain Shift
30% Chance
Even if Le Pen reaches the Élysée, institutional and coalition constraints limit her ability to unwind France’s Ukraine commitments quickly. EU obligations, defense-industry contracts, military planning, and National Assembly arithmetic force a compromise rather than a clean break.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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