Possible scenario
Backlash Narrows Race
20% Chance
The vow gives Macron’s camp, pro-Ukraine conservatives, and parts of the French security establishment a clearer line of attack. Le Pen remains competitive, but the pledge revives concerns over Russia links and makes the 2027 runoff less predictable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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