Split-State Outcome

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Vance trip produces uneven results: Montana’s Republican-leaning electorate responds well, but Kansas suburban and moderate Republican voters remain open to Hamilton. This is a plausible middle path given the recent double-digit Montana lead and the unusual Kansas GOP governor endorsement of a Democrat.

What it moves

Healthcare+0.1%
Energy−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Split-State Outcome

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