Possible scenario
Durable Corridor Reopening
46% Chance
The Houthi pledge is honored in practice, at least for EU- and US-linked vessels, allowing shipping companies to cautiously increase Red Sea and Suez Canal usage. This is the most likely path because it extends the 2025 truce pattern and gives the Houthis a way to reduce pressure without abandoning their regional messaging.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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