Possible scenario
Pledge Breaks Down
18% Chance
The pledge collapses because of renewed regional fighting, a disputed vessel link, or a breakdown in Houthi command discipline. This would rapidly restore the Red Sea risk premium and likely slow any planned carrier return to the Suez route.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.7%
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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