Possible scenario
Conditional Houthi Compliance
24% Chance
The Houthis avoid direct attacks on EU and US ships but keep threatening or targeting vessels they describe as Israeli-linked. This keeps the Red Sea partially reopened, with route decisions depending on ownership, cargo, flag, and port-call history.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- ZIM-4.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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