Possible scenario
Enforcement Narrows Focus
25% Chance
Rather than regulate all unhosted-wallet transfers, Treasury concentrates on crypto mixers, sanctioned addresses, ransomware proceeds, and high-risk foreign platforms. This preserves the industry benefit from the withdrawn rule while keeping enforcement pressure on illicit-finance chokepoints.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Tickers
- COIN+1.9%
- HOOD+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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