Possible scenario
Crypto Access Expands
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the withdrawal of the unhosted wallet rule becomes another signal of a crypto-friendly federal posture. Exchanges, wallet providers, and fintech firms use the opening to expand self-custody integrations while continuing basic sanctions screening and know-your-customer controls at on-ramps.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- COIN+4.7%
- +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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