Possible scenario
Firms Adapt Abroad
20% Chance
Large employers respond by moving more hiring outside the United States rather than waiting for visa access to improve. This reduces the near-term shock to corporate output but worsens the long-term hit to US labor-force growth and university-to-employer pipelines.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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