Possible scenario
Cuts Take Hold
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the administration implements the legal immigration reduction through agency rules, consular processing limits, and narrower work-permit eligibility. Courts may hear challenges, but the policy remains largely in force during the first phase.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Consumer Services -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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