Possible scenario
Courts Slow Policy
26% Chance
Universities, hospitals, business groups, and immigrant-rights organizations challenge the new rules under the Administrative Procedure Act and constitutional claims. Litigation is likely because the cut is large, abrupt, and follows several earlier restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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