Possible scenario
NATO Incident
15% Chance
A military incident occurs near Finland, the Baltic Sea, or the Arctic frontier, testing NATO procedures without necessarily triggering direct conflict. This is lower probability but has the largest short-term market impact because it would be the clearest test of NATO since Finland joined the alliance.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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