Possible scenario
Hybrid Pressure Rises
30% Chance
Russia increases gray-zone activity below the threshold of open conflict, using cyber operations, GPS disruption, border pressure, and information campaigns. NATO responds with attribution, sanctions, and resilience measures rather than invoking Article 5.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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