Possible scenario
Supreme Court Takes Case
20% Chance
The dispute advances quickly through emergency motions or conflicting lower-court rulings, prompting Supreme Court review. The Court is likely to clarify the boundary between federal Guard authority and state police powers after the 2025 Los Angeles and Oregon deployment fights.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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