Possible scenario
Federal Courts Narrow Law
40% Chance
The Justice Department or Defense Department challenges SB 1354 quickly, arguing California cannot restrict federally authorized National Guard movements under Title 32. Courts are likely to preserve federal supremacy while leaving some state notification or coordination provisions intact.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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