Possible scenario
Institutional Clash Escalates
20% Chance
A less likely but material scenario is that Trump and his allies use the regret statement as the opening move in a campaign against judicial checks on executive authority. Because the earlier Supreme Court decision blocked his Fed firing, any attempt to limit review or punish the Court would be read as a threat to institutional independence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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