Possible scenario
Feud Stays Rhetorical
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Trump continues to criticize Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett in speeches and interviews, but does not translate the anger into a durable institutional campaign. The conservative legal movement absorbs the dispute as a personal grievance tied to the Fed-firing defeat rather than a full break with the Supreme Court.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.