Possible scenario
GOP Legal Split
25% Chance
Trump's statement deepens an existing split between MAGA loyalists and traditional conservative lawyers. The dispute becomes important for future judicial nominations, Senate primaries and conservative legal organizations, but it does not immediately alter Supreme Court doctrine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.