Possible scenario
Diplomatic Retaliation Cycle
22% Chance
The arrest becomes part of a reciprocal diplomatic confrontation between Sweden, Russia, and potentially other NATO members. Measures are likely to include summoned ambassadors, expulsions of intelligence officers under diplomatic cover, and new travel or security advisories.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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