Possible scenario
Contained Legal Case
38% Chance
Russia treats the arrest as a criminal counterintelligence case rather than a broad confrontation with Sweden or NATO. Stockholm protests the detention and seeks consular access, but both sides avoid immediate expulsions or major retaliatory steps.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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