Possible scenario
Weather Or Pilot Error
50% Chance
The most likely path is that the Transportation Safety Board of Canada finds no broad equipment issue and focuses on weather, terrain, route choice, or pilot decision-making. Fatal private-aircraft crashes commonly take months to resolve, with early factual updates but limited immediate market relevance.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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