Possible scenario
Sales Proceed Smoothly
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the $2.27 billion sale approvals move through the normal congressional notification period with no binding blockage. Kuwait’s recent Iranian missile and drone interceptions and expanded U.S. base access make its package especially defensible, while the Egypt aid waiver reduces immediate rights-related obstacles.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- RTX+0.8%
- LMT+0.7%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.