Possible scenario
Russian Flows Resume
18% Chance
Russia reopens exports after a short administrative or domestic-price intervention, easing the immediate edible-oil disruption. India's palm oil purchase then looks like a temporary bridge rather than a durable change in trade flows.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.