Possible scenario
Palm Substitution Holds
45% Chance
India continues replacing unavailable Russian sunflower oil with palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia. This is the base case because the 150,000-ton purchase is a practical short-term substitution rather than a sign of immediate demand destruction.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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