Possible scenario
Broader Security Probe
25% Chance
Investigators use the case to examine whether Houthi or IRGC-linked actors tried to recruit additional people with access to U.S. energy, cyber, or export-control information. This would create compliance and contracting scrutiny, but still falls short of a market-wide shock unless classified systems were compromised.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Business Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- BAH-0.7%
- LDOS-0.6%
- CACI-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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