Possible scenario
US Sanctions Bite
20% Chance
The Trump administration proceeds with measures that make global banks wary of touching ICC-linked transactions, even if the court has non-dollar workarounds. The court continues operating but faces higher costs, delayed payments and diplomatic confrontation with European governments.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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