Possible scenario
Operational Insulation Holds
45% Chance
The ICC’s claim that it can withstand US financial sanctions proves largely accurate because its core funding, payroll and vendor payments continue through euro-denominated channels in Europe. US measures remain politically disruptive but do not immediately halt investigations or court administration in The Hague.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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