Regional Escalation

12%its chance, of the story’s futures

−2.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The evacuation order is an early signal of a larger confrontation involving Iran-linked forces, Saudi territory, and possible US military assets. This remains less likely than contained attacks, but the recent sequence of Riyadh-related warnings makes it a material tail risk.

What it moves

Consumer Services−4.6%
Energy+4.6%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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