Calibrated Military Response

18%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.8%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington and Riyadh respond with visible defensive deployments and limited strikes on Houthi launch infrastructure in Yemen. The response is designed to deter further attacks without directly targeting Iran.

What it moves

Energy+1.5%
Consumer Services−1.1%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?