Possible scenario
Survives; aid push
45% Chance
Gorbulin survives with non-life-threatening injuries, and Kyiv uses the strike to underline that senior defense planners remain targets. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov intensify appeals for Patriot interceptors, NASAMS missiles, and counter-drone systems from the United States and Europe.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Tickers
- RTX+1.3%
- LMT+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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