Possible scenario
Severe strategic blow
25% Chance
Gorbulin's injuries prove serious enough to remove him from advisory work for an extended period. Moscow continues drone attacks on Kyiv, reinforcing perceptions that Russia is targeting Ukraine's defense brain trust and political resilience.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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