Possible scenario
Talks Continue Slowly
30% Chance
The most durable outcome is a diplomatic process without immediate concessions. Both Moscow and Washington preserve negotiating optionality while Kyiv and European governments demand clarity on ceasefire terms before endorsing formal talks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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