Possible scenario
Diplomacy Breaks Down
25% Chance
Core disputes over occupied territory, security guarantees, sanctions relief, and sequencing prevent progress. The constructive language fades, and both sides return to military pressure while blaming the other for unrealistic demands.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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