Possible scenario
Operational Rules Tighten
25% Chance
The D.C. government, Pentagon, and National Guard Bureau make limited adjustments to how Guard members operate around public disturbances. These changes are likely to focus on pairing, communications, and de-escalation rather than a wholesale withdrawal or major troop increase.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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