Possible scenario
Demand Concerns Reassert
20% Chance
The $100 level proves difficult to sustain if traders focus on weaker end-user demand, high pump prices, or a surprise inventory build. In this scenario, crude pulls back even though supply risks have not disappeared.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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