Possible scenario
Delay and Pushback
18% Chance
The proposal runs into procedural delays, technical questions over contract law and lobbying from employers in the City. The government keeps the policy alive but postpones binding legislation while it consults on scope, enforcement and treatment of existing contracts.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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