Possible scenario
Global AML Convergence
25% Chance
China’s claim that anonymity is illusory aligns with a broader global push against mixers, privacy wallets, and sanctions-evasion networks. The U.S., EU, and FATF may not endorse Beijing’s framing, but they have overlapping incentives to expand traceability rules.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- COIN-2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.