Possible scenario
China Expands Enforcement
35% Chance
Beijing uses the intelligence-agency statement to reinforce the message that crypto activity is traceable and politically unsafe. The most likely follow-on is targeted enforcement against laundering rings, over-the-counter brokers, and cross-border stablecoin channels rather than a full reversal of China’s existing crypto ban.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- COIN-1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.